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Cake day: July 7th, 2023

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  • In the comments section of another, a TikTok user responded to a thread outlining the current administration’s anti-LGBTQ actions by saying, “None of that has anything to do with us being gay.”

    Compliance will not save you, you craven fucking cowards. They have never been quiet about how much they hate gay people, and the fact that they’re focused so heavily on attacking trans people right now is only because they want to pick off the weakest of the herd first.

    Bigotry is the enemy of all people. None of us is free until all of us are free.




  • Nah, Trump doesn’t want this to escalate. Exactly the opposite in fact. He wants to hit Iran, then call a ceasefire, so he can say that he boldly applied a mixture of force and diplomacy to resolve the situation (you know, the one that his constant enabling of Isreal and his pull out from the Iran nuclear deal created). He’s looking for a quick win, not a protracted conflict.

    This seems counterintuitive because of the obvious similarities to the George Bush playbook. Start a war in the Middle East, become a wartime president, get re-elected/made president for life. But it’s not 2001 anymore. American attitudes have changed. In particular, the right have really soured on the whole war in the Middle East thing. America regularly cycles between World Police and Total Isolationism, and right now MAGA is leading the charge deep into an Isolationist era. They see foreign wars and foreign aid as the same bucket; money spent on people who aren’t them.

    So Trump is trapped between his base, who have no interest in another forever war, and his need to put at least one win on the board for his absolute disaster of a presidency. The optimal out for him here is a quick resolution, which is why he is absolutely losing his shit over Isreal constantly escalating the situation, and Iran having the sheer audacity to strike back despite his oh so clear instructions.






  • There are, as I understand it, ways that you can train on AI generated material without inviting model collapse, but that’s more to do with distilling the output of a model. What Musk is describing is absolutely wholesale confabulation being fed back into the next generation of their model, which would be very bad. It’s also a total pipe dream. Getting an AI to rewrite something like the total training data set to your exact requirements, and verifying that it had done so satisfactorily would be an absolutely monumental undertaking. The compute time alone would be staggering and the human labour (to check the output) many times higher than that.

    But the whiny little piss baby is mad that his own AI keeps fact checking him, and his engineers have already explained that coding it to lie doesn’t really work because the training data tends to outweigh the initial prompt, so this is the best theory he can come up with for how he can “fix” his AI expressing reality’s well known liberal bias.


  • I don’t feel like the hyperbole defense really cuts it when a significant number of people think the hyperbole is true. You can find an example of that happening in this same thread and I’ve had plenty of other interactions like it. For every person who takes it as hyperbole, there’s another who genuinely feels like we’re staring down the barrel of WW3, and that kind of fear is dangerous and harmful.

    It’s never “Just a joke” when the joke is hurting people.


  • You’re misunderstanding my point. I’m not telling anyone off for venting about the prospect of America kicking off yet another forever war, or another brutal bombing campaign. That shit sucks, and people need to vent about it. Sometimes dark humour is the way to do that.

    My issue is very specifically with people framing it as “World War 3”, even though a) its not, and it won’t be, and there’s nothing happening right now that could realistically cause it to be, and b) “War” should be bad enough. There’s plenty to vent about right there. Actual real people will die for the sake of Netanyahu’s political career and Trump’s fragile ego. That’s awful, and if you need to vent through memes to cope with that, fair play. But why do we have to add this entirely fictitious “world war” layer just to make it somehow worth venting about? Why build up this completely fictional set of horrors in place of the very real ones, in a way that convinces people already stricken with despair that things are somehow even worse?

    You’re absolutely correct. Shit really sucks right now. Everything is awful. So why the fuck would you (plural, indirect, nonspecific) want to convince people that its even worse than that? Seems like reality is already bad enough.


  • Let me add - and I should have said this in my original reply - that I completely get why it’s easy to feel scared about this stuff. First, there’s this constant environment of everyone talking about the looming threat of WW3, which is exactly what memes like this contribute to, creating a culture of fear for no good reason.

    But, second, there absolutely is a general ratcheting up of tensions across the world. Major powers are more militarized than they ever have been previously, and the strong trade relationships that helped maintain peace are eroding. There is, absolutely, an increased likelihood that we’re going to see conflicts break out, but what’s missing is the specific conditions needed for those conflicts to spiral out in a mass scale escalation.

    What I think we’re likely to see over the next ten to twenty years is more limited regional conflicts like Ukraine. I think it’s quite likely, for example, that India and Pakistan may go to war. But there’s simply no reason to believe that war will pull in other major powers.

    The world is becoming a scarier place. You’re not wrong to feel that way. And any conflict is a tragedy. Why these memes annoy me is not because I’m on the “Nothing ever happens train” but rather because they discard very real, very valid concerns in favour of this nebulous fantasy of everyone dying in nuclear fire for vague and unspecified reasons.


  • Turn the question around. Ask yourself, what are the conditions necessary for this to become WW3?

    First, at a minimum, you need more than one major power to become involved. For the purposes of this discussion I’ll define make powers as The US, The EU / NATO (functionally indistinguishable for all practical purposes at this point), China, Russia, India.

    Aside from the US, the only other major power with a serious interest in the region is Russia. You can vaguely make an argument for the EU, but they’re too concerned with the war in Ukraine to really give a shit right. At best you might see some involvement from the UK, and they’re no longer strongly aligned with or capable of influencing the rest of Europe.

    So basically the only way this escalates beyond a limited regional conflict is if Russia decides to throw in. For Iran. While they’re struggling to win a war in Ukraine that is currently cratering their economy and killing off an entire generation of young Russian men. Do you really think they have the slightest inclination to get into a shooting war with the US right now, with everything they’re currently facing? I’m not even sure they have the logistics capacity to actually get troops to Iran right now.

    But what if local powers get involved? They won’t. No one in the region likes Isreal or Iran. They’re both pariahs. No one around them wants to get involved in a war for either of their sakes.

    Hell, they can barely even fight a war with each other. Rockets and bombing raids are the only real options they have, because there’s a whole lot of Iraq in between them. At best the US could stage a naval invasion (something that Isreal has no capacity to do on their own), in which case what you’re looking at is another Iraq style invasion followed by twenty years of bloody, costly occupation as they try to maintain order over a mountainous region containing a hundred million people.


  • Sure, but the button on the meme could just as easily have said “WAR” as “WW3”. It’s even the same number of characters. Do you see what I’m getting at? The the constant fearnongering about this turning into WW3 always suggests that what’s happening right now isn’t bad enough. Surely the dark humour could be directed at the actual real bad things Trump is currently doing, rather than hypothetical bad things that he might be doing?


  • I think the saddest part about these WW3 memes is that it really does feel like the people making them only care about the conflict being engineered in the Middle East by Trump and Natanyahu because there’s a chance that it might negatively impact their own lives. The implication is that as long as this doesn’t actually turn into WW3 (it won’t, Jesus Christ please learn some basic history) it’s fine and a bunch of people getting killed by bombs is missiles is OK as long as they’re brown and way over there.


  • I think that even if every single assertion that person makes is taken, prima facie, to be completely 100% accurate and correct, it would still only modify my previous statement to “Our enemy is stagnant wages that - for the overwhelming majority of all workers - no longer rise in step with productivity.”

    I’m really not clear on how that’s all that much of a difference. Good for the few people who lucked out I guess. The linked comment actually wraps up by saying the graph only demonstrates rising wealth inequality, which is, you know, the entire fucking point of the god damn graph, holy shit, where the fuck do they think people are claiming the lost wages went, into fucking space?!?!


  • Not only could you handle it, it’s actually beneficial. Inflation - if matched with equivalent increases in wages - eats away at debt over time, because your debt is locked in at the point where you take it on, but your buying power relative to that debt continues to increase.

    Our enemy is not inflation. Inflation can be our friend. Our enemy is stagnant wages that no longer rise in step with productivity.

    Everyone needs to see this graph and really understand what our problem is.


  • Inflation takes a while. Shocks that affect consumer confidence can actually increase spending temporarily. What’s happening in the US right now is that people are spending more in order to get in all their long term purchases (car, tv, phone, computer, kids toys) before some combination of inflation and tariffs push the prices up. But this will only last as long as people’s excess of spending money lasts. Then consumer purchasing will, if nothing changes, recede massively.