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Joined 3 months ago
Cake day: November 27th, 2024
  • ubergeek@lemmy.todaytoPeople Twitter@sh.itjust.works•Economist Warns That Elon Musk Is About to Cause a "Deep, Deep Recession"English
    5·
    2 days ago

    Since the economy is reasonably healthy (lowish unemployment, inflation under control, etc)

    OMG… The economy ISN’T reasonably healthy…

    Inflation is headed back up.

    Houselessness in the US hit records highs, and still climbing.

    Real income is still flat from 1980.

    It turns out, when you flood the market with competent workers and your economy is otherwise healthy, they tend to get snapped up.

    That… Not at all how it works. It ignores all sorts of things, like labor mobility. Remember the Great Depression? Loads of people, and loads of jobs out there… Labor was frozen, and immobile.

    Right now, we have low unemployment, because people are holding 2 and 3 jobs just to meet basic needs… And are still falling behind.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/11/democrats-tricked-strong-economy-00203464

    The economy is only doing “reasonably well” for oligarchs.

    Additionally, slashing federal spending does… Reduce the GDP. Every federal dollar spent usually leads to 3-7 USD once it gets to the streets.

  • ubergeek@lemmy.todaytoPeople Twitter@sh.itjust.works•Economist Warns That Elon Musk Is About to Cause a "Deep, Deep Recession"English
    6·
    2 days ago

    30k is a low end estimate. And 30k+ people in a single month WILL be more than a dent. So, take the 100-150, and revise back to 70-120K new jobs, which is below typical new job creation.

    And this is JUST the first wave of effects… Those jobs created other jobs, down the line, which also are going away. Case in point: The 90 people in a single NPO that let everyone go. That is not unique, and not counted in the federal layoff count.

    Just looked it up, the current count is 77,000 employees have been terminated, so far. So, that 100-150k gets revised downward to 30-70K new jobs… Almost cut it in half there! Its expected to increase, upwards of 200K. And, those all, once again, have downward effects on local govs and NPOS.

  • ubergeek@lemmy.todaytoPeople Twitter@sh.itjust.works•Economist Warns That Elon Musk Is About to Cause a "Deep, Deep Recession"English
    7·
    2 days ago

    I doubt we’ll see a depression unless Trump increases tariffs again in response like Hoover did.

    Hoover wasn’t ripping through the federal government, slashsing employee headcounts, and slashing outgoing funds.

    These two alone, are likely enough to seal the “Depression” deal… Like, in 1 month, we have 30,000+ new people seeking unemployment; states, counties, and cities are going to start cutting jobs too, because of the slashed federal funds which fund programs at those levels. I know one non-profit that has basically let all 90 employees go, because lack of federal funds coming in on grants means they can’t keep the rent paid.